BJP eyes dominance in Assam, tight race in Bengal, DMK faces challenge in Tamil Nadu, and UDF gains edge in Kerala
As exit poll numbers pour in after voting concludes, early projections suggest a fragmented, state-specific electoral outcome across India. While some regions indicate continuity, others point to potential shifts, making the 2026 verdict far from uniform.
Assam appears firmly tilted towards the NDA. Most agencies project the BJP-led alliance between 88–100 seats (Axis My India) and 85–95 seats (Matrize), comfortably above the majority mark of 64 in the 126-member Assembly. Meanwhile, the Congress-led alliance is expected to remain in the 24–36 seat range, with smaller parties like AIUDF limited to marginal gains.
In West Bengal, however, the contest remains razor-close. The “poll of polls” suggests a near tie, with TMC at 146 seats and BJP at 140, just shy of the majority mark of 148. Individual projections vary widely: some give the BJP up to 208 seats, while others predict a strong TMC recovery with up to 205 seats, indicating high volatility.
Tamil Nadu presents a more layered picture. While DMK-led alliances are projected between 92–145 seats, actor Vijay’s TVK emerges as a disruptor, with estimates ranging from 98–120 seats (Axis My India). This signals a possible three-way contest reshaping the state’s traditional political landscape.
In Kerala, exit polls lean towards a UDF comeback, projecting around 70–90 seats, while the ruling LDF trails close behind in several estimates, making it a competitive race. Puducherry shows a clearer trend, with the NDA likely securing 16–20 seats in the 30-member Assembly, suggesting continuity.
Taken together, these projections indicate a politically diverse outcome. While Assam and Puducherry hint at stability, Bengal and Tamil Nadu underscore uncertainty and evolving voter preferences.
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